What time frame should you choose to trade and which is the most profitable?

Most Forex traders have no idea how or why Forex prices move and make key mistakes in how they work. In this article, we’ll look at three popular time frames and see what the best timing for trading is in your trading strategy.

In the Forex markets, all the main news of supply and demand will be reflected in the price action, as well as the opinions of all traders, so it allows you to break the price action into 3 time frames.

Long-term trends

Large trends in currencies that last from a few weeks to many months and they reflect the economic and political health of a country’s currency. These basic fundamentals are slowly changing from expansion to contraction, and that is why these trends continue for so long.

Medium-term trends

Although the underlying fundamentals prevail in the long run, in the short run traders ’emotions can raise prices much higher or lower, and this can be seen in intermediate trends, within a large trend that can be both with the underlying trend and the opposite. Typically, these trends will last from a few days to about a week.

Short-term trend

This action during the day and really is not a trend, but just a random price action. For a day prices can go anywhere and they do.

What are the best time frames for trading?

From the above it is clear that trading long-term trends can bring you the most profit with the least amount of work. All you need to do is enter the trend and keep it going – but a long-term trend that fits is really only suitable for patient and disciplined traders.

Trading intermediate trends can be very profitable and requires less patience and discipline than trading long-term trends. You can make money both in the time frame and in the one you choose, just depends on your personality.

I haven’t mentioned day trading and its most popular terms for trading, but it doesn’t give you a real chance of success. There is a large industry that sells unwanted robots and other so-called day trading and scalping strategies, but they don’t make money and day traders lose.

If you want to win in Forex trading, don’t make the mistakes of the majority and trade for the short term – trade for the longer term and you will have chances on your side and be able to get a great second profit.

Why do we pay more for gasoline in the summer?

The barrel contains 159 liters of oil, and the refiner can produce about 1.78-2.54 liters of gasoline from 3.8 liters of crude oil. One barrel of oil will also produce approximately 64 liters of other useful by-products such as plastic, propane and ammonia.

Currently, 62% of the world’s most widely available crude oil is in the Middle East. The main players are Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. There are four main factors that govern the price of this precious oil.

a) Availability or supply of crude oil

b) Oil consumption rate

c) Financial markets

d) public policy and regulations

The fundamental economy dictates that high oil supply translates into lower demand, which in turn will lead to low prices, and conversely, if we have low oil supply, it will lead to high demand and, in turn, to higher prices. It is with this basic concept that oil is traded in the financial market. An oil speculator is investing in oil futures, essentially betting on how much oil will cost in the future. Government policies and regulations also have a significant impact on oil prices, for example, laws aimed at preventing climate change are applied through taxation, and this increases the price of gasoline for the consumer.

An important factor that also regulates the price of crude oil is that over the past 50 years it has been valued in US dollars, so fluctuations in this currency can cause price movements to buy a barrel of oil. There has recently been talk of moving from a US dollar-denominated transaction to either the euro or a basket of currencies. It is unknown at this time what he will do after leaving the post.

Finally, we would like to end the discussion of prices by mentioning that in 1956 the geophysicist Hubbert suggested that the world would eventually reach the peak level of oil production, and he introduced the term “peak oil”. Once this level is reached, the world gradually begins to deplete its oil reserves, and this will lead to a sharp and deadly rise in prices.

So why is gasoline more expensive in summer? Well, there are many factors why gasoline is usually more expensive in the summer months, and one reason is increased demand and improved weather, resulting in more motorists on the roads. Another key reason is that when the weather starts to warm up, utilities temporarily close some of their refineries so they can carry out the necessary scheduled maintenance, and this can lead to disruptions in the gasoline supply chain. It should be borne in mind that there are actually two fuel mixtures: winter and summer gasoline. In the summer at gas stations there is a seasonal transition, because the summer mixture helps to reduce smog in the summer season of ozone, which runs from June 1 to September 15 each year. This initiative was launched in the US in 1995 as part of the Reformed Gasoline Program (RFP). So how exactly does a summer blend help reduce pollution? Summer-grade gasoline contains fuel additives known as “oxygen” that burn cleaner, and this is helpful for reducing pollution during the summer season. To learn more about crude oil, read this book.

Gasoline has a dirty secret, and it enriches investors

I just refueled my truck. I paid almost $ 2.60 a gallon, which seems expensive to me.

It’s hard to believe that prices this summer have been the highest since 2014. We’ve had almost four years of low gasoline prices … or something that feels low.

However, based on the price of oil, we now pay for gasoline on a relative basis more than in 2008.

Quite a bit more. It makes me think there is an opportunity for investment.

Let me show you …

Something strange is happening with gasoline

The price of oil is only 45% of the cost of gasoline. The rest are taxes (21%), processing costs (18%) and distribution (16%).

However, something strange is happening with the price of gasoline. We see this from a simple comparison: how many liters of gasoline can be bought for one barrel of oil.

In theory, this ratio should not change much. However, something is wrong with the price of gasoline. As oil prices have declined since 2008 to date, gasoline prices have risen compared to the price of oil.

Gasoline has risen in price relative to the price of oil.

Oil refiners today are a good choice

By 2017, the price of oil was 62% of the cost of gasoline. But back in 2009, it took 50 liters of gasoline to pay for one barrel of oil. Given that a barrel of oil is only 42 liters, something failed.

When oil prices soar, it is difficult for refiners to get gasoline at a profit. This is because as gasoline prices rise, consumers save.

In 2009, the U.S. had the lowest mileage since 2003. This forces refiners to keep the price of gasoline low, even paying a high price for oil.

However, when oil prices fell in 2016, refineries harvested the ground, destroying consumers. They took more gasoline … lowering the ratio and increasing profits.

A giant refiner Valero Energy Corp. its revenues fell from $ 113 billion in 2008 to $ 63 billion in 2009. From 2013 to 2015, as prices fell, Valero’s revenue rose from $ 5.7 billion to $ 8.2 billion. This was a 44% increase in profits, even as oil prices plummeted from $ 100 to $ 30 a barrel.

Today we are witnessing something similar. As oil prices fall from a recent high of $ 66 to $ 60 and below, we can expect gasoline prices to fall more slowly. This means that this year the refiners will work well.

And the sector must continue to grow well. And the recent rollback makes the oil refinery attractive today.

If you want to direct money to work in oil without directly affecting the price of oil, this is a good choice today.

The best bitcoin trading platforms

Cryptocurrency has given not only the fastest way to transfer money, but also a new organization with which you can trade and make money other than stocks and other commodities. While you can directly sell and buy bitcoin, you can also use bitcoin exchanges to continue your cryptocurrency trading. There are many exchanges where bitcoin trading is safe and secure, and customers are also provided with many advanced services. As an investor or cryptocurrency trader, you can choose any of the exchanges for your comfort. However, it is recommended to spy on the reviews of some before giving up the choice. Below is a brief overview of the best bitcoin exchanges around the world.

CoinBase: This is probably one of the most famous and largest bitcoin exchanges that trade double funds directly and through a wallet. CoinBase was founded in 2012 thanks to a venture search for the Y-Combinator and has grown rapidly since then. It has many lucrative services such as multiple deposit and withdrawal options, money transfers between two CoinBase instant, wallet funds with multiple signature options for more secure transfers, Bitcoin deposits insured for any occasion, etc. Europe and the United States, which freely allow transactions through them. It has relatively low transaction fees and offers bitcoin trading along with plenty of altcoin trading.

CEX.IO: one of the oldest and most well-known exchanges, launched in 2013, London as a bitcoin trading exchange as well as a cloud mining intermediary. Later, the capacity of mining increased so much that it occupied almost half the capacity of network mining; however, it is now closed. “CEX.IO” allows customers to expand a much larger volume of bitcoin transactions, and it has the ability to instantly provide bitcoin at a asking price. However, this exchange takes a high amount of exchange, but this is offset by the security and ability to allow multi-currency transactions (dollar, euro and ruble) to buy bitcoin.

Bitfinex: This is one of the most advanced trading exchanges and it is especially suitable for experienced cryptocurrency traders. With high liquidity for Ethereum as well as for bitcoins, this exchange has the best options such as credit exposure, margin and multi-order trading. In addition, Bitfinex offers customizable GUI features, many types of orders such as limit, stop, trailing stop, market, etc. This exchange also provides about 50 currency pairs that can be traded and with easy withdrawal for everyone. One of the largest exchanges in terms of trading volume Bitfinex offers a pseudonym for transactions, and only some services require identification. The only downside to this exchange is that it does not support the purchase of bitcoins or any other altcoins through fiat transactions.

Bitstamp: It was founded in 2011 and is the oldest of the exchanges offering transactions with cryptocurrency and bitcoins. Most respected because, despite being the oldest, he has never been a security threat lately. Bitstamp currently supports four currencies Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple, and is available with a mobile app in addition to a website to trade. It has excellent support for European users or traders who have a Eurobank account. Security is extended and stored in a cold store, which means the coins are stored offline, so you can tell that hacker intrusion is completely impossible. Finally, its sophisticated user interface suggests that it is not for beginners but for professionals and offers a relatively low transaction fee.

Kraken: It is one of the largest stock exchanges in terms of liquidity, trading volume of the euro and source indicators of Canadian dollars, US dollars and yen. The most respected Kraken exchanges, which are managed through the turmoil of cryptocurrency trading, have managed to keep a number of customers safe, no matter which other exchanges are hacked at the same time. Having 14 or more opportunities to trade cryptocurrency, the user can make a deposit as well as cryptocurrency along with a similar withdrawal capacity. However, it is not suitable for beginners, but has better security features and a lower transaction fee compared to CoinBase. The most important factor for Kraken is that he is trusted in society and he was the first to show volumes and prices at the Bloomberg terminal.

How do commodity options work?

How is the option price determined?

First you need to understand the meaning of internal and external. The option premium consists of both of these values. The intrinsic value of an option if you used it before a futures contract and then reimbursed. For example, if you have a soybean call on November 5, and the futures price for that contract is $ 5.20, then there is an intrinsic value of .20 for that option. Soybeans sign a contract for 5,000 bushels, so 20 cents multiplied by 5,000 = intrinsic value of $ 1,000 for that option.

Now let’s say the same soybean call on November 5 costs $ 1,600 as a bonus. $ 1,000 costs are intrinsic value, and the remaining $ 600 is external. External value consists of time value, volatility premium, and demand for that particular option. If the option has 60 days to go before it expires, it has a longer time value than 45 days. If there are large price changes from low to high in the market, the volatility premium will be higher than the market for small prices. If many people buy exactly the exact price, this demand can artificially raise the premium.

How much will the option premium move in relation to the underlying futures contract?

You can understand this by figuring out the delta factor of your option. The delta ratio tells you how much the premium in your option will change based on the movement of the underlying future contract. Let’s say you think gold will rise in price by $ 50 an ounce in December or by $ 5,000 a contract before it expires. You bought an option with a delta ratio of .20 or 20%. This option should receive approximately $ 1,000 in the amount of a premium expected movement in gold futures prices of $ 5,000.

Can an option speculator make a profit earlier than the option has intrinsic value?

Yes, as long as the option premium is increased enough to cover transaction costs such as commission and commission. For example, you have a corn call on Dec. 3 and a corn bell for $ 270 per bushel, and a transaction cost of $ 50. Suppose your option has a 20% delta, and the market for future corn in December will increase by 10 cents a bushel to $ 2.80 a bushel. Corn is a contact of 5,000 bushels, so 1 cent multiplies by 5,000 = $ 50. Your premium option will increase by approximately 2 cents = $ 100. Your break was even $ 50, so you’ll get $ 50 in profits with no intrinsic value, as the money is still 20 cents left.

Investing in futures and options is very risky, and only risk capital should be used. Preliminary figures do not indicate future results. Cash, options and futures do not necessarily respond to similar incentives in a similar way. There are no guaranteed good deals.

The impact of the US dollar on commodities

Beginners in trade often ask why the US dollar affects the value of many goods in the market. To answer this question, it is important to first understand what a reserve currency is.

Reserve currencies are currencies held by central banks and large financial institutions in very large quantities. These currencies are used for major investments, mass transactions and all aspects related to the world economy.

One of the most prominent reserve currencies in the world is the US dollar. It is widely known for its liquidity and is the currency of America, one of the most powerful and stable economies in the world. Goods are usually valued in reserve currencies. Gold, oil, steel, platinum and many others are valued in US dollars. Often buyers of raw materials use the US dollar to buy various goods. Thus, a sudden change in the price of the dollar may affect a number of goods in the market.

Raw materials and the US dollar have an inverse correlation. If the value of the dollar rises, then the price of raw materials falls, and if the dollar falls, the prices of raw materials increase. An increase in the value of the US dollar indicates that the buyer will have to spend more of their own currency to purchase a certain amount of goods. If goods become more expensive, its demand will fall, which will lead to lower prices.

Each product has its own characteristics. These attributes often affect the price of different goods. But the value of the dollar has a greater impact on commodity prices compared to the various attributes of commodities. Even history has its evidence of an inverse relationship between the US dollar and commodities. In 2014, a significant amount of commodity prices fell when the dollar rose by about 23%.

As a trader it is important to always monitor the price of the dollar and even the aspects that will affect its value. It is well known that commodities and the US dollar are moving in opposite directions. This understanding does not guarantee a specific investment decision, but can help in making sound decisions.

Another reason for the dollar’s ​​influence is that commodities are global assets. They trade all over the world. Foreign buyers buy US dollars such as corn, soybeans, wheat and oil. When the value of the dollar declines, they acquire greater purchasing power because less of their currency is required to buy each dollar.

The best cryptocurrencies for 2018: what are the best alternatives to bitcoin?

Important: this position should not be seen as investment advice. The author focuses on the best coins in terms of actual use and acceptance, not in terms of finance or investment.

In 2017, cryptographic markets are setting a new standard for simple profits. Almost every piece or chip yielded incredible profits. “Rising tide throws all boats,” as they say, and the end of 2017 was a flood. Rising prices have created a positive feedback cycle that is attracting more and more capital to Crypto. Unfortunately, but inevitably, this galloping market leads to massive investment. Money was thrown indiscriminately into a variety of dubious projects, many of which would not bear fruit.

In the current bearish environment, hype and greed are being replaced by critical appraisal and prudence. Especially for those who have lost money, marketing promises, endless shillings and charismatic oratorios are no longer enough. Well, the main reasons to buy or keep a coin are again the main ones.

The main factors in the evaluation of cryptocurrency-

There are several factors that, at least in the long run, can beat hype and price pumps:

Adoption angle

Although the cryptocurrency technology or ICO business plan may seem strange without users, but these are just dead projects. It is often forgotten that widespread recognition is an important feature of money. In fact, it is estimated that more than 90% of the value of bitcoin depends on the number of users.

While the adoption of Fiat is entrusted to the state, the adoption of cryptography is purely voluntary. Many factors are involved in accepting a coin, but perhaps the most important factor is the likelihood of the coin being accepted by others.

Security

Decentralization is essential for the I push model of a true cryptocurrency. Without decentralization we have a slightly closer Ponzi scheme than a real cryptocurrency. The problem that cryptocurrency is trying to solve is trust in individuals and institutions.

If dismantling a coin or central controller can change the transaction record, it calls into question its basic security. The same goes for parts with unverified code that haven’t been thoroughly tested for years. The more you can expect the code to work as described, regardless of human influence, the greater the security of the coin.

Innovation

Real coins seek to improve their technology, but not at the expense of security. True technological progress is rare, as it requires a lot of experience as well as wisdom. While there are always fresh ideas that you can wind up with when it makes weaknesses or criticisms of the original purpose of the coin, it misses the point.

Innovation can be a challenging factor to evaluate, especially for non-technical users. However, if the currency code has moaned or is not receiving updates regarding important issues, it may be a sign that the developers are weak about ideas and motives.

Incentives

The economic incentives inherent in the currency are easier to understand for the average person. If the coin had a large pre-mining or ICO (offer of the initial part), the team had a significant share of chips, it is clear that the main motivation is profit. By acquiring what the team offers, you play your game and enrich it. Be sure to give tangible and reliable value in return.

5 cryptocurrencies to buy in 2018

There has never been a better time to reevaluate and balance a cryptographic portfolio. Based on their solid foundation, here are five pieces that I think should be followed or possibly bought at their current depressing prices (which, just by warning, can go lower).

# 1. Bitcoin (due to its decentralization)

The first place belongs to Bitcoin (BTC), which remains the market leader in all categories. Bitcoin has the highest price, the broadest view, most of the security (due to the phenomenal energy consumption of bitcoin mining), the most well-known brand identity (forks sought to be relevant) and much of the development is active and rational. It is also the only part to date that is represented in traditional markets in the form of bitcoin futures trading on the American CME and CBOE.

Bitcoin remains the main engine; The performance of all other parts strongly correlates with the performance of bitcoin. My personal expectation is that the gap between bitcoins and most if not all other parts will widen.

Bitcoin has several promising innovations that will soon be installed as additional layers or soft forks. Examples are the Flash System (LN), the tree, the Mimblewimbleund Signature Cord and more.

In particular, we plan to open a new range of applications for bitcoin, as it allows large-scale, micro-transactions and instant and secure payments. LN is becoming more stable as users test their various capabilities with real bitcoins. As it becomes easier to use, it can be assumed that it can benefit greatly from taking bitcoin.

№2. Litecoin (because of its resilience)

Litecoin (LTC) is a clone of bitcoin with a different hash algorithm. Although Litecoin no longer has Bitcoin anonymity technology, strange reports have shown that the adoption of Litecoin in dark markets is now the second, only bitcoin. Although the currency I am much more suited to is the role of purchasing illegal goods and services, perhaps this is the result of the longevity of Litecoin: it was launched in late 2011.

Another factor in favor of Litecoin is that it integrates Bitcoin SegWit technology, which means that Litecoin is prepared for LN. Litecoin can benefit from the exchange of atomic chains. In other words, provide peer-to-peer currency trading without the involvement of third parties (i.e. exchanges). Because Litecoin keeps its code mostly synced with bitcoins, it is well placed to benefit from the technical advances of bitcoin.

№3. Ethereum (due to reasonable contracts)

At this point in Ethereum (ETH) there are a few major issues. First of all, governments run ICOs, and rightly so: many have turned out to be either fraudulent or bankrupt. Since most ico runs on the Ethereum network as an ERC 20 token, the ICO mania has brought a lot of benefits to Ethereum in recent years. If appropriate rules are made to protect investors, Ethereum project fraudsters can claim some legitimacy as a crowdfunding platform.

The second major problem facing Ethereum is the delay in the transition to the new hybrid system for detecting performance and battery life. Currently, the GPU for Ethereum mining is profitable, but Bitmain has just announced the ASIC minor Ethereum, which is likely to affect the bottom lines of GPU miners. It remains to be seen whether this will change prisoners of war and how successful this change will be.

If Ethereum can survive these two major challenges – regulation and mining – will demonstrate greater resilience. Otherwise, there are several competing currencies that track its shadows, such as Ethereum Classic (etc.), Cardano (ADA) and EOS.

# 4. Monero (because of his anonymity)

While its adoption in the dark markets is not all that could be expected, I (XMR) remains the prime minister’s private life. Its reputation and market capitalization still exceed the reputation of its rivals – and for good reason.

The Monero code requires less confidence that Zcash is “loyal” to the key ceremony, and had a fair start, unlike Dash. The fact that Monero recently changed its Pow to defeat the development of a small ASIC for its algorithm confirms the commitment of part of the decentralization of mining. The significant drop in hashing speed is due to the new version, which is constantly reported on ASIC. It could also be an opportunity for the GPU and even minor processors to come back to me. The new version of Monero, 0.12, also includes other improvements that show that Monero continues to evolve in a sensitive direction.

№5. iPRONTO (decentralized incubation platform)

iPRONTO is an Ethereum incubation network dedicated to investors looking for a safe and reliable platform for investing in new ideas and future innovators who can present their ideas and get opinions from users, experts in the field on the practice and implementation of the ideas.

The ideas of the innovators are supported as the NES in smart contract format will be signed between the expert platform and the client if the client’s business idea is signed to the Committee for consideration and registration on the platform. The idea will not be published for all users on the public platform of the network, but only for selected members of the target community who are willing to sign a smart contract to maintain the confidentiality of the idea.

5 Benefits of Cryptocurrency Trading

When it comes to trading cryptocurrencies, you need to consider whether your chosen market will rise in price up or down. And most interestingly, you never own a digital asset. In fact, trade is done with derivative products such as CFDs. Let’s look at the benefits of cryptocurrency trading. Read on to learn more.

Volatility

While cryptocurrency is a new market, it is quite volatile due to short-term speculative interest. The value of bitcoin in just one year dropped to $ 5,851 from $ 19,378 in 2018. However, the value of other digital currencies is fairly stable, which is good news.

What makes this world so exciting is the variability in the value of cryptocurrency. Price movements offer many opportunities for traders. However, it also carries a lot of risk. So if you decide to study the market, just make sure you research and compose a risk management strategy.

Hours of operation

Usually the market is open for trading 24/7 as it is not regulated by any government. In addition, transactions are made between buyers and sellers around the world. There may be slight downtime during infrastructure upgrades.

Improved liquidity

Liquidity means how quickly a digital currency can be sold for cash. This feature is important because it allows you to speed up transaction time, increase accuracy and increase prices. As a rule, the market is illiquid, as financial transactions take place on different exchanges. Thus, small deals can lead to big changes in prices.

Exposure with debt exposure

Because CFD trading is considered a product of borrowed funds, you can open a position regarding what we call “margin”. In this case, the value of the deposit is a fraction of the trade value. This way, you can enjoy great exposure to the market without investing a lot of money.

A loss or gain will reflect the value of the position at the time of its closure. So if you trade on a margin, you can make a huge profit by investing a small amount of money. However, it also increases losses that may exceed your deposit in trading. So make sure you consider the total cost of the position before investing in the CFD.

It is also important to make sure you follow a solid risk management strategy, which should include appropriate restrictions and stops.

Quick account opening

If you want to buy cryptocurrencies, make sure you do so through an exchange. All you need to do is sign up for an exchange account and keep the currency in your wallet. Keep in mind that this process can be restrictive and time consuming and labor intensive. However, once the account is created, the rest of the process will run smoothly and without complications.

In short, these are some of the most well-known benefits of cryptocurrency trading here and now. I hope you find this article very helpful.

Bitcoin is thriving on the contrary

Since it’s currently in vogue, I’d like to announce that I’m launching my own cryptocurrency next week.

Call it “kingcoin”.

No, it’s too useful.

How about “muttcoin”? I have always had a soft spot for mixed breeds.

Yes, it’s perfect – everyone loves dogs.

It will be the biggest since the fidget.

Congratulations! Everyone who reads this will get one mutcoin when my new coin comes out next week.

I’m going to evenly distribute 1 million mutcoins. Feel free to spend them anywhere (or wherever you take them!).

What is it? The cashier at Target said they wouldn’t accept our mutcoins?

Tell those who doubt that mutcoins are lacking – there are only 1 million mutcoins. In addition, it is backed by the full faith and merit of 8GB of RAM on my desktop computer.

Also, remind them that ten years ago bitcoin couldn’t buy you even a pack of chewing gum. Now one bitcoin can acquire a lifetime stock.

And, like bitcoin, you can safely store mutcoin offline, away from hackers and thieves.

Basically it is an exact copy of the properties of bitcoin. Muttcoin has a decentralized book with impossible hacked cryptography, and all transactions are unchanged.

Are you still not sure that our mutcoins will be worth billions in the future?

Well, that’s understandable. The fact is that launching a new cryptocurrency is much harder than it seems, if not impossible.

That’s why I believe bitcoin has reached these heights despite all odds. And thanks to its unique network of users, it will continue to do so in the future.

Of course, there were setbacks. But each of these failures eventually led to higher prices. The last drop of 60% will be no different.

The miracle of bitcoin

The success of bitcoin lies in its ability to create a global network of users who are either willing to make transactions with it, or store them for later. Future prices will be determined by the growth rate of the network.

Even in the face of wild price fluctuations, bitcoin adoption continues to grow exponentially. There are now 23 million wallets in the world that pursue 21 million bitcoins. In a few years, the number of wallets could increase, including 5 billion people on the planet connected to the Internet.

Sometimes the motivation for new crypto converters was speculative; other times they sought a stock of value away from their own national currency. Last year, new apps, such as Coinbase, made it even easier to include new users.

If you haven’t noticed when people buy bitcoin, they talk about it. We all have a friend who bought bitcoin and then didn’t want to keep quiet about it. Yes, I’m to blame for that – and I’m sure a lot of readers too.

Perhaps subconsciously owners become crypto-evangelicals, as persuading others to buy is in their own interest to increase the value of their possessions.

The evangelism of bitcoins – the spread of the good word – is what has miraculously led to a rise in prices from $ 0.001 to $ 10,000.

Who would have thought that the creator of the pseudonym, tired of the global banking oligopoly, launched an intangible digital resource that in less than ten years was equal to the value of the world’s largest currencies?

No religion, political movement or technology has ever witnessed such growth. On the other hand, humanity has never been so connected.

The idea of ​​money

Bitcoin started as an idea. To be clear, all the money – be it money used by primitive islanders, a gold bar or the US dollar – started as an idea. The idea is that the network of users evaluates it equally and is willing to part with something of equal value for your form of money.

Money has no value of its own; its value is purely external – just what others think it is worth.

Take a look at the dollar in your pocket – it’s just a fancy piece of paper with a one-eyed pyramid, a colorful portrait and the signatures of important people.

In order to be useful, society must view it as a unit of account, and merchants must be willing to accept it as a payment for goods and services.

Bitcoin has demonstrated an amazing ability to reach and connect a network of millions of users.

One bitcoin is worth only what the next person is willing to pay for it. But if the network continues to expand at an exponential rate, limited supply argues that prices can only move one way … higher.

Bottom line

The nine-year rise of bitcoin has been marked by huge bouts of variability. In January 2015, there was a correction of 85%, and several others over 60%, including a colossal drawdown of 93% in 2011.

However, through each of these fixes, the network (as measured by the number of wallets) continued to expand rapidly. As some speculators saw their value go down, new margin investors saw the price and became buyers.

In fact, the abnormal level of volatility has helped the Bitcoin network grow to 23 million users.

Hey, maybe we just need price fluctuations in muttcoin to attract new users …

The future of oil prices

I recently read a journalistic bestseller 25 years ago: Friday night lights. The book, which was also filmed in movies and TV series, exemplified the ups and downs of the high school football team in Odessa, Texas, amid low oil prices and the poor economy of West Texas at the time.

The book offers a snapshot of the Texas oil patch of that era. With the collapse of prices, oil disasters could not find work. Realtors could not sell houses. And it lasted long enough that it seemed that low oil prices would forever remain a status quo.

What does this now have to do with oil prices?

Then few people knew about the new player that was going to enter the global oil game: China. By 1993, just a few years after the book was published, the country had become a net importer of oil, putting an end to any talk of long-term oil problems. And today many people make the same mistake again …

Just last week, “Financial Times” the headline said it all: Saturation of oil demand by wetlands by 2020.

The report was based on the International Energy Agency’s appraisal. Thanks to China’s slowdown, one of the group’s bureaucrats said: “We are nearing the end of the greatest history of demand growth in energy history.”

But against the background of wringing his hands aside comes a new world player in the field of oil: India. And India could once again change the dynamics of demand for the oil industry – and, ultimately, oil prices.

Oil prices may rise

India produces some of its own oil. But, as noted last year by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the country is increasingly dependent on imported fossil fuels. The agency ranks India fourth among consumers of oil imports after the US, China and Japan. Other groups, using more updated data, rank third in India.

But, as the Oxford Institute for Energy Research recently noted, demand for oil in India has erupted to even higher levels in a trend that began last December. By February, oil consumption had risen to a record 3.91 million barrels per day, the second largest in the country. The trend continues despite the withdrawal of fuel subsidies and the introduction of excise taxes by the reformist Modi government.

What’s going on? On the one hand, Indians are learning to love cars.

When many of us think of India’s transport networks, we mean creaking crowded trains, millions of motorcycles and ubiquitous three-wheeled “rickshaws” on narrow streets. Cars were not really an important economic factor in energy demand.

However, last month car sales rose 22% – the fastest pace in almost five years. In fact, over the same period of the decade, car sales grew by more than 33% to 2.6 million total passenger cars per year. The Association of Indian Car Manufacturers expects sales to grow by another 6 – 8% in fiscal 2016.

That may seem small in a country of 1.25 billion people. And again, only 10 years ago, Chinese drivers annually bought about as many cars. This year, they will buy nearly 18 million, an increase of 38% over the past five years, despite the economic slowdown in recent years.

This is where the history of energy consumption in India differs from China …

Another growth demographics

While China’s working-age population has already reached its peak, India’s population is still growing. Demographers say it will grow over the next 30 years.

You see where this is heading towards India and world energy prices. If the demand for oil in India increases to what it is now in China, then the world needs to somehow extract much more oil (about 7 million barrels a day by some estimates) in just a few years.

Raymond James recently made a research note on global oil demand in 2015. Partly driven by India’s economic growth, oil demand is increasing by about 2 million barrels a day, or 2%. This is actually the fastest growth in oil demand since 2004, excluding the impact of 2010, when the world economy spilled out of the trough created by the financial crisis.

What’s here to take away?

Wall Street and other people may be concerned about the excess oil here and now. But don’t get used to it. Low oil prices mean less exploration and less production. We have already begun to see how many manufacturing companies are cutting intelligence plans and capital expenditures. And the seeds are sown for the next cycle of high inflationary oil prices.